New AI Tool Forecasts Drought 90 Days Ahead Nationwide

The tool forecasts streamflow drought, which is when rivers and streams drop below normal levels for extended periods, which may directly impact water availability even when rainfall returns to normal.

The USGS River DroughtCast uses machine learning models trained on data from thousands of USGS streamgages, some with more than 100 years of continuous records, to forecast when rivers and streams will drop to abnormally low levels.

“The USGS is putting more than a century of streamflow data to work in a completely new way, using machine learning to predict streamflow drought weeks in advance,” said John Hammond, USGS project manager for the drought forecasting system. 

Streamflow drought occurs when rivers and streams stay below normal levels for extended periods, distinct from the more familiar meteorological droughts characterized by lack of rainfall. While lack of rain typically comes first, factors like soil moisture, snowpack, and groundwater all influence how dry conditions translate into reduced river flows. This makes streamflow drought particularly difficult to predict but critically important for water resource planning. 

A user of the tool can choose any length of forecast between one and 13 weeks, with the tool being most reliable in the first four to six weeks. Regardless of the length of the forecast, the first week of severe or extreme drought conditions are correctly predicted approximately 75% of the time. This reliability drops to approximately 55% of the time by week 13. All forecasts include confidence estimates so users can understand the reliability of predictions during different timeframes.

River DroughtCast assists with a gap between short-term weather forecasts and seasonal water supply outlooks. Farmers relying on surface water irrigation may adjust planting schedules and crop selections. Municipal water managers may implement conservation measures. Recreation operators may prepare for impacts to fishing, boating and other water-dependent activities.

River DroughtCast currently provides forecasts for more than 3,000 USGS streamgage locations with at least 40 years of data. Developers are working on the next version to expand public access to areas without gauges and to further improve forecast accuracy.

The USGS created River DroughtCast in partnership with NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, which supported the project throughout its development.

USGS scientists have long used artificial intelligence tools to improve the quality and timeliness of their work, from accelerating critical mineral mapping to detecting earthquakes and invasive species. In keeping with Executive Order 14179 Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence and Secretary’s Order 3444 Leading Interior’s Path to Artificial Intelligence Transformation, the USGS has published its AI Strategy to enable effective, responsible, and innovative integration of AI into science and business practices.